Asia Times: Invading Burma

ASIA HAND

The case for invading Myanmar

By Shawn W Crispin


BANGKOK - With United States warships and air force planes at the ready, and over 1 million of Myanmar's citizens left bedraggled, homeless and susceptible to water-borne diseases by Cyclone Nagris, the natural disaster presents an opportunity in crisis for the US.


A unilateral - and potentially United Nations-approved - US military intervention in the name of humanitarianism could easily turn the tide against the impoverished country's unpopular military leaders, and simultaneously rehabilitate the legacy of lame-duck US President George W Bush's controversial pre-emptive military policies.

Continued


I have seriously considered this idea. If George Bush hadn't bungled Afghanistan and Iraq, there probably would be a case for doing it.

Since everything that this president has touched has turned to shit, the chances of bungling this operation are high.

He couldn't even save New Orleans after Hurricana Katrina. I doubt he could do much better here.

I don't think China would tolerate it. Or Russia. They'd prefer to see millions of people die before lifting a finger to help anybody. After all, that is there political legacy to the world-- killing millions of people.

I don't think Thailand would support it. There is too much corrupt business going on between the two militaries. And the Thai military don't like anybody messing with their rice bowls.

ASEAN would probably not support it. Those countries have their heads up their collective backsides. And Surin Pitsuwan has proven to be a horrible diplomat.

India and Japan might support it. But I doubt they would contribute to the cause in any meaningful way with money, strong political backing and materials.

African and Latin American countries might support it. But that would take a huge diplomatic effort.

The Europeans would probably support it. Australia and Canada would follow Europe. But would they pony up the money and help rebuild the country? Probably not. And they are not going to make any effort alone without the US carrying most of the political and military responsibility. That is the nature of the European beast. And they certainly won't face down China and Russia in the Security Council.

The Burmese might be able to dump the military themselves in light of what happened to Suharto of Indonesia after the 1997 crisis, but it would be hard to overthrow the government when people are starving and the Thai military is sending all the emergency food supplies to the Burmese generals.

I think in the final analysis nothing is going to happen, and you will have millions of people dying in the streets from lack of food, water and sanitation.

My heart really goes out to the Burmese people. When you are treated even worse than African countries in similar situations, you really know things are bad.

Cyclone Nargis and the Tragedy of Asian Impotence

Anwar Thi just wrote scathing criticism of the regional reaction to the Cyclone Nargis tragedy in Burma here.

I absolutely agree with him.

There are powerful non-western countries in the region who are friendly with the Burmese generals, India, Thailand, Japan, Singapore, Malaysia and China really should have no problems getting into the country to support the people. These personal, diplomatic, business and military connections are deep. China and Japan have propped up this junta for decades with bribes and investments going into the junta's coffers. The Thai military really is not in a position of military and economic might to dictate terms to the Burmese junta, but it does have personal connections with the leadership that should be milked for all its worth. And, no, not just to go golfing and embezzle their people's money to afford luxurious lifestyles.

There is really nothing the West can do, and why should it be responsible anyway?

Asian countries love to cry about regional independence and sovereignty and the evils of western global imperialism. Yet, when it comes to helping a fellow Asian brother, it always "show me the money" or "I can't be bothered" or "it is your karma you are suffering from."

This Cyclone tragedy is really a test of Asian(and ASEAN) leadership.

ASEAN chief Surin Pitsuwan has proven that he is a weak leader and a weak diplomat.

He is acting like a chicken with his head cut off. He is a lone voice in the wilderness while he rest of ASEAN dithers in response. The fact that he is out there doing the Thai 2-step all by his lonesome proves what a worthless diplomat he is.

The UN under its Korean secretary-general is just as bad. It almost makes me nostalgic for the good old Kofie Annan days, who seemed to be on the ball every time there was cataclysmic catastrophe.

In the end, the only country that can do anything is the US, because it has the naval power to airlift food and supplies from ships offshore, which is what it did for Indonesia during the Tsunami.

But who or what is stopping the US from doing this? Burma doesn't have the military capacity now to prevent US helicopters from flying into Rangoon and dropping off supplies or prevent it from creating a perimeter around the city to prevent the US from supplying Rangoon.

No, it is China calling the shots, just like when it calls the shots during UN Security Council meetings every time the issue of Burma comes up.

So, basically, China, which has the economic, diplomatic and military capacity to get international help into Burma, is prolonging this crisis only to preserve its strategic interests in the region.

Let me end with Anwar Thi:

At a time that ASEAN is supposedly transforming itself from a security-cum-economic bloc into something more substantive, at a time that China is struggling to show itself off to the world in advance of an already embattled Olympics, at a time that India is insisting upon a seat at the U.N. Security Council as a new world power, if these countries together keep dragging their feet and fail to act energetically to help millions of people within a stones' throw of their borders, then shame on them, and woe to everything that they falsely claim to represent.

Thailand and ASEAN's Weak Response to the Burma Tragedy.

I have been following the Burma tragedy with interest, noting how much the victims of the Tsunami are willing to step and take care of Burma with financial and material support.

You'd think that Thailand, at least, would have an emergency plan in place in case of a natural disaster of this magnitude in light of what happened after the Tsunami.

You'd think it would have logistical capabilities to support a neighboring country in dire straits.

Thailand probably does have the logistical and material capabilities to support Burma.

So why the weak response?

Thailand is not a poor country. It may have a corrupt government that loves to cry poverty, but it isn't poor.

It is also Burma's largest trading partner. It also has a huge Burmese working class slaving away in many industries in Thailand.

You'd think it would be in Thailand's best interest, morally, politically and economically, to step up to the plate and take a leadership role in supporting Burma during this tragedy.

I have noted the ASEAN countries have also been tepid in their response.

From The Nation:

China said it would send $1 million in emergency aid in batches, some of it in cash, to help reconstruction.

Economic giant Japan offered 28 million yen (Bt8.5 million) in emergency aid including tents, electric power generators and other goods.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations appealed for "generous" international aid, with secretary-general Surin Pitsu-wan saying the group has begun to mobilise help through coordination centres in its capitals.

Singapore, which has close ties to Burma, expressed solidarity and pledged $200,000.

New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark said her country was willing to provide aid - but only through UN agencies.

Australia was "ready, willing and able" to send aid, while South Korea announced it would provide Burma with emergency materials worth $100,000.

Washington released an initial sum of $250,000, while Canada has pledged $2 million in humanitarian assistance.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said the organisation "will do whatever [necessary] to provide urgent humanitarian assistance", and stressed that a disaster management team was ready to leave for Burma.

The European Union also released ค2 million (Bt99 million) in initial emergency aid.

Note that India and China, two of the region's biggest players, are weak to respond. China, Japan and India have billions invested in propping up the junta in support of their business enterprises, but no cash for the Burmese people. This is quite a revealing mindset.

Ironic that after the Tsunami, countries received billions of dollars in support, a lot of it to Thailand, much of it unaccounted for.

I predict that the Asian countries will do what they always do during tragedies like this, wait for the farang to pick up the tab and clean up the mess.

King Bhumibol and Samak Sundaravej: Thailand's Leading Experts on Political Theory and Democracy

From New Light of Myanmar:


Concerning democratization process, the Thai King said the examples of some western powers stood witness to the fact that too much democracy was not good. So much talk and less work was not either. The western big nations accused Thailand of being weak in exercising democracy. The democracy being practised by Thailand was better than the one they were practising.


Yeah, Thailand is the guiding light in the democratic world. 18 coups in 75 years. More military dictatorship and bureaucratic polity than liberal democracy.


And our friend Samak weighs in with words of wisdom (courtesy of the International Herald Tribune):


Thailand's prime minister joked Wednesday that neighboring Myanmar is striving to become a "50 percent democracy" because the ruling junta's draft constitution would keep detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi from elected office.

Myanmar's people will vote in a May 10 referendum on a proposed constitution that critics say is a sham designed to cement military rule.

One clause effectively bars Suu Kyi from power by stating that no one married to a foreigner can hold elected office. Suu Kyi, whose late husband was British, is under house arrest and has been detained for 12 of the past 18 years.

"They will not release her. They're keeping her on the shelf," Thailand's notoriously outspoken Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej joked while speaking to reporters after meeting with Myanmar's Prime Minister Lt. Gen. Thein Sein in Bangkok.

"This is the way of a 50 percent democracy," Samak said.

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"Myanmar's prime minister said they are holding the referendum on the constitution because they want the world community to know that Myanmar is a democracy lover," Samak said on behalf of Thein Sein, who declined to speak to reporters.


Yep, those constitution ripping, monk murdering, Nobel Laureate detaining, corrupt military dictatorship democracy lovers.

Reporters without Borders Acknowledges Blogger Jotman for Burma Coverage

In blog competition, Reporters Without Borders gives special prize to Burmese blogger

Reporters Without Borders gave its “Special Prize” to Burmese blogger Jotman in the German public broadcaster Deutsche Welle’s international weblog competition, the “BOBs - Best of the Blogs,” awarded in Berlin yesterday.

“This is an English-language blog about current events in Burma and Thailand,” Reporters Without Borders said. “Located on the border between the two countries, Jotman is one of he most interesting sources on the Burmese crisis. He has, for example, an interview with the leader of the underground army formed by Burmese students. We are proud to award him this prize.”

Link


Jotman has gone where no Thai or foreign reporter dares to go.

I am grateful for his courage and for his coverage. He deserves all the accolades that he receives.

Jotman Goes to Burma

I am really enjoying Jotman's series on Burma. He actually risked life and limb to get an inside scoop. I have to give him kudos for that.

You can check it out here:

Video interview with a monk at a monastery in Burma

“I don’t want to talk, I don’t want to die.”

Video interview with a monk at a monastery in Burma

Prachatai: Is the Thai Military Working for the Burmese Junta Redux

Intelligence services tell Burmese media outlet to close temporarily as authorities allegedly plan crackdown on exile organisations

Mizzima/IFEX
26 October 2007

Pick to Post

Thai intelligence services told at least one Burmese media outlet based in Thailand to temporarily close its offices, allegedly because the Thai government is planning to launch a nation-wide crackdown on "illegal" Burmese groups based in Thailand.

Informed sources told Mizzima that the offices of pro-democracy Burmese opposition groups in Thailand will be searched by security personnel as part of a nation-wide "operation" to be launched in early November 2007. The sources say that the measure follows the Burma military junta's claims that Thai-based organizations instigated or were helping recent anti-regime protesters in the neighbouring country.

The Burmese regime has linked the monks leading the demonstrations in August and September with organisations based in the Thai border town of Mae Sot. Burmese Religion Minister Brig Gen Thura Myint Maung was quoted in the 25 October edition of the state-run newspaper as saying that "bogus monks" who are in contact with opposition groups based in Thailand had instigated the recent protests in Burma.

Myint Maung, citing the names of monks who organized the protests, said, "All 15 monks have visited Mae Sot in Thailand and some of them have attended training courses in explosives and community organizing there."

link

Nice to know that the Thai military is doing "intelligence work" for the Burmese junta.

Wall Street Journal: Globalization and Exploitation of Burmese Workers on Thai Border

The Burma Connection

By ANDREW HIGGINS

October 13, 2007; Page A1

Shortly after dawn six days a week, scores of young women scramble down a muddy track north of this border town and clamber aboard metal boats for a short trip across the Moei River, the narrow, cocoa-brown boundary between Myanmar and Thailand.

The women, victims of the economic ruin visited on this country by the world's most enduring military dictatorship, are on their way to work in a factory on the opposite riverbank in Thailand. In the late afternoon, they cross back to Myanmar.

The commute serves a global textile industry driven by powerful forces. One is the misery of the nation formerly known as Burma, home to legions desperate for work. Another is America's appetite for low-cost lingerie.

The women work at Top Form Brassiere (Mae Sot) Co., a unit of a Hong Kong-listed company, Top Form International Ltd. Most of the six million bras it will sew at its plant along the Moei River this year will end up in U.S. stores under names like Maidenform and Vanity Fair.

The labels say "Made in Thailand." The workers, though, come mostly from Myanmar.


Continued


This is a page 1 story in the Wall Street Journal. The WSJ is the most widely read daily newspaper in the world.

Two things come to mind. First, the quality of this journalism is high. This is the type of journalism the Thai media should be doing, but doesn't. Second, the Thai media won't be able to blame the farang, the Chinese and Indians for the Burmese problem much longer if stories like this continue. People are going to start wondering what Thailand's relationship is with Burma and will report on it. The Thai media can take the stand that Thailand is blameless regarding Burma or it can start pointing out the dodgy business that enables the Burma's junta to sustain its iron grip on the country.

Asia Times: Thailand's Energy and Burma

Thailand a key to new Myanmar sanctions

By Andrew Symon

BANGKOK –As international condemnation mounts against Myanmar's military government and its recent armed crackdown on street demonstrators, the country's money-spinning oil-and-gas sector could soon be the target of new and tighter Western-led sanctions. Should new bans on energy trade and investment come to pass, more than any other regional country Thailand will find itself caught between a diplomatic rock and an economic hard place.

Natural gas exports to Thailand are by far the Myanmar government's largest source of foreign revenues, accounting for nearly US$160 million per month in take-or-pay contracts negotiated before the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis - and well before the recent spike in global energy prices. According to statistics from the Asian Development Bank, gas exports contribute nearly one-third of Myanmar's total official export revenues. And there are several big new bilateral investment plans underway to pump up further natural gas and electricity exports from Myanmar to Thailand.

Under former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, Thailand came under US criticism for expanding its business ties with Myanmar's junta. His government's so-called "forward engagement" policy towards Myanmar was out of line with US- and European-led trade and investment sanctions, but was in accord with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which, since admitting Myanmar into the grouping in 1997, had preferred economic engagement over isolationism to influence the regime.

continued


Bangkok Post: Violence in Burma to affect Thai business

Here is an excerpt of Thai investment in Burma

It said investment made by Thai investors in hotel and tourism businesses in Burma totaled US$228.6 million. Investment projects Thai businesspersons made in the production industry in Burma are worth $614.6 million, the fisheries industry $171 million and agriculture the smallest at $2.7 million.

Power generating projects invested by Thailand in Burma worth $6.03 billion baht involve construction of hydro-power dams along the Salween River, which is expected to take six years to complete.

The project value, combined with that of other investment projects, brought up the total investment value Thailand has in Burma to $7.38 billion.

It resulted in Thailand becoming the biggest investor in Myanmar with Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia coming second, third and fourth respectively.


It doesn't look like chump change to me.

Free Burma

Surayud vs. Sonthi on Burma

General Sonthi via New Mandala on the Burmese situation:

Regarding the dispersal of demonstrations, the Burmese government did not use military force. Police was deployed. That was the right approach. It has been used by every country—that the military must step back to let police take charge. But the actual tactics may vary from country to country. However, I think there is no violence in the current situation. Everything is under control. The Burmese government is still in control of the situation. On the reports that Buddhist monks were assaulted [during the dispersal of demonstrations], that cannot be concluded just from looking at the photos. As it happened in Thailand, sometimes people used violence against officials. So officials may have to defend themselves. There has been no political suppression. Burmese authorities should understand that it—getting Buddhist monks involved in the demonstrations—is a tactic used by demonstrators. So Burmese authorities understand that they cannot use violence against Buddhist monks. They must use soft approach. I was informed that Burma uses dialogue to solve the problem, and senior Buddhist monks have helped negotiate to end the problem. I do not think Burma will care [about international pressure], because it does not really depend on anyone. Burma has been taking care of itself all along. It does not accept interference from outside. Moreover, there are many countries that have discretely helped protect Burma—such as China and Korea. That is because Burma has plenty natural resources that many major powers want to have their hand on. We are neighbor [of Burma]. If we get involved, that will undermine our relationship.


Bangkok Post's Editorial on General Sonthi's analysis of the Burmese situation:

Gen Sonthi is in grave error

Recent comments by Council for National Security chairman Sonthi Boonyaratkalin condoning the violent suppression of largely peaceful demonstrations across Burma are despicable, and the outgoing army chief should be held accountable for his seriously irresponsible remarks.

Continued

Asia Times: Burmese Bloggers on the Frontlines

Myanmar's blogs of bloodshed


By Richard S Ehrlich

BANGKOK - Dodging a deadly military crackdown, bloggers in Myanmar are now on the front lines providing news and photos of death and insurrection. The military responded on Friday by closing down the Internet, signaling that a wider and more severe crackdown on street protesters could be imminent.

At least 10 people are believed to have been killed this week in protests led by Buddhist monks against the military government. Scores of people have been arrested, including monks, during
demonstrations that have brought tens of thousands of people onto the streets of the old capital Yangon since the beginning of the week.

Beginning on Monday, Myanmar authorities started to close down several public Internet cafes in Yangon, according to international press freedom groups. The state-affiliated main Internet service provider, Bagan Cybertech, meanwhile, apparently on government orders had slowed down the speed of its Internet connections, making it more difficult for journalists and bloggers to send large-file-size photos and video clips to outside news organizations.


These include Irrawaddy.org, which also publishes a monthly Irrawaddy magazine in Thailand, and DVB.no, the Democratic Voice of Burma radio, based in Norway.

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The most respected of those websites are now mainstream, offering reports quoted by international news organizations.

In 1988, Burmese journalists in exile set up Mizzima.com, promoting democracy in Myanmar through the activists' India-based Mizzima News Agency, which is bilingual in Burmese and English, and now includes online video.

Some blogs, such as weunite-weblog.blogspot.com, collect Internet links relating to Myanmar, and warn when the regime blocks websites and blogs.

Graffiti artists can now go to saffronrevolutionworldwide.blogspot.com for stencil images portraying Buddhist monks - to be cut out, held against a wall, and spray-painted, resulting in a picture of two monks walking - similar to internationally acclaimed graffiti artist Bansky's urban icons.


The authorities blocked popular blogs http://www.kohtike.blogspot.com, http://niknayman.blogspot.com and http://soneseyar.blogspot.com which continuously posted news and photographs of ongoing protests against the fuel price hike and economic hardship.


Read the rest here


Recent stories in Asia Times concerning Burma


Monks in the vanguard for regime change (Sep 28, '07)

The man behind the Myanmar madness (Sep 28, '07)

Buddha vs the barrel of a gun (Sep 27, '07)

Moment of truth for Myanmar's military (Sep 27, '07)

Burning down Myanmar's Internet firewall (Sep 21, '07)

YouTube: Military Crackdown in Burma

New York Times/BBC: Burmese Revolution

Seth Mydans

New York Times

BANGKOK, Sept. 24 — Myanmar’s military junta issued its first warning on Monday after a month of widening antigovernment demonstrations, saying it was prepared to crack down on the Buddhist monks who are at the heart of the protests.

Speaking on state television, the junta’s minister of religious affairs told senior Buddhist clerics to rein in the tens of thousands of monks who have marched through several cities in recent days.

If not, said the minister, Brig. Gen. Thura Myint Maung, unspecified action would be taken against the monks “according to the law.”

He said the protesting monks had been instigated by the junta’s domestic and foreign enemies, the same accusation that had previously been made against members of the political opposition. Any action against the monks would be extremely risky for the government because of the reverence in which they are held in Myanmar, a Buddhist nation. The warning came at the end of a day when protesters filled the streets in greater numbers than ever, pushing their confrontation with the military government toward an unpredictable and possibly dangerous outcome.

Continued


Here is The Nation's hypocritical Editorial on Burma

EDITORIAL

Burma needs the world's help

The Nation

The UN Security Council must intervene now before the protests in Rangoon end up in bloodshed Published on September 25, 2007

Peaceful demonstrations against the Burmese military junta have been held daily for the past month. In the past week, thousands of Buddhist monks have taken to the streets in the former capital and commercial centre of Rangoon and other cities around the country. They have vowed to continue to express their discontent with their repressive military rulers. Few people expected that the demonstrations in mid-August against a dramatic rise in oil prices would escalate into the current full-blown mass demonstrations led by Buddhist monks.

The international community must not let the Burmese people down this time. They have endured brutal repression over the past 19 years and have shown their resolve and demonstrated that they want change, not only in their everyday lives, but also in the country's political, economic and social spheres as well. Students who were active in the pro-democracy movement two decades ago, many of whom were arrested and tortured, are rejoining the demonstrations with high hopes. Now Buddhist monks around the country are taking over the leadership of the anti-government protest.

Continued


The Nation really has some balls.

It supports, condones and propagates for a military dictatorship at home while condemning a junta in a neighboring country.

I have no doubt it my mind that if Thaksin supporters hit the street and threatened the military regime, The Nation would be at the front of the line in support of the junta eliminating the Thaksinistas. After all, The Nation, notably Sopon, has been crying about the failures of the junta in ridding the country of all Thaksin elements, as if they were rats who needed to be exterminated.

Now, The Nation wants the UN to intervene in Burmese politics. Imagine if the UN had sided with Thaksin and against the junta, The Nation would launch such a right-wing nationalist propaganda campaign against foreign interference that it would make your head spin.

But in The Nation's deluded world, a military junta in Thailand is good, but a military junta in Burma is bad. How it gets away with this hypocrisy never ceases to amaze me.


Jotman has been actively blogging about Burma lately. Check it out here.

Bangkok Pundit has also been actively blogging on Burma here and here.

Siam Sentinel here and here

Shawn Crispin has done some reporting on Burma and the internet here.

Follow the Asia Sentinel's report here and here.

Irrawaddy is doing some comprehensive reporting here.


New Mandala on Burma here, here, here , here , here, here, here



These are my thoughts, which generally are aligned with the posts at Bangkok Pundit.

At the government level, I think the Thai government prefers the status quo.

If Burma descended into civil war, the Thai government would be in a precarious situation. It is not prepared for a refugee problem on the borders with Burma. It is not prepared for a backlash in Thailand, public opinion wise, if Burmese monks are killed by the military. It is not prepared for the economic instability that will be caused by a civil war in Burma or a Burma that becomes a stable democratic republic that quickly liberalizes its economy. And it is not prepared to deal with China(the Burmese junta's chief patron), which might pressure Thailand into doing its bidding.

Lastly, in the short-term, it may have repercussions for Thai politics, because of the Thai military's close business relationship with the Burmese military e. g. Chavalit(a general with concessions in Burma who might become part of a winning coalition after the next election), Surayud(who took a hard line against Burma as army chief while Thaksin took a softer approach because of business connections with the junta) and General Sonthi (who will become deputy PM in charge of national security, still retains the title of junta chief, and has cozy relations with the Burmese junta.)