Asia Times: Invading Burma

ASIA HAND

The case for invading Myanmar

By Shawn W Crispin


BANGKOK - With United States warships and air force planes at the ready, and over 1 million of Myanmar's citizens left bedraggled, homeless and susceptible to water-borne diseases by Cyclone Nagris, the natural disaster presents an opportunity in crisis for the US.


A unilateral - and potentially United Nations-approved - US military intervention in the name of humanitarianism could easily turn the tide against the impoverished country's unpopular military leaders, and simultaneously rehabilitate the legacy of lame-duck US President George W Bush's controversial pre-emptive military policies.

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I have seriously considered this idea. If George Bush hadn't bungled Afghanistan and Iraq, there probably would be a case for doing it.

Since everything that this president has touched has turned to shit, the chances of bungling this operation are high.

He couldn't even save New Orleans after Hurricana Katrina. I doubt he could do much better here.

I don't think China would tolerate it. Or Russia. They'd prefer to see millions of people die before lifting a finger to help anybody. After all, that is there political legacy to the world-- killing millions of people.

I don't think Thailand would support it. There is too much corrupt business going on between the two militaries. And the Thai military don't like anybody messing with their rice bowls.

ASEAN would probably not support it. Those countries have their heads up their collective backsides. And Surin Pitsuwan has proven to be a horrible diplomat.

India and Japan might support it. But I doubt they would contribute to the cause in any meaningful way with money, strong political backing and materials.

African and Latin American countries might support it. But that would take a huge diplomatic effort.

The Europeans would probably support it. Australia and Canada would follow Europe. But would they pony up the money and help rebuild the country? Probably not. And they are not going to make any effort alone without the US carrying most of the political and military responsibility. That is the nature of the European beast. And they certainly won't face down China and Russia in the Security Council.

The Burmese might be able to dump the military themselves in light of what happened to Suharto of Indonesia after the 1997 crisis, but it would be hard to overthrow the government when people are starving and the Thai military is sending all the emergency food supplies to the Burmese generals.

I think in the final analysis nothing is going to happen, and you will have millions of people dying in the streets from lack of food, water and sanitation.

My heart really goes out to the Burmese people. When you are treated even worse than African countries in similar situations, you really know things are bad.