Thursday, June 4, 2009

Tulsie's number crunching

The Nation:

According to my own calculation, the daily cost is Bt18.6 million, meaning if the 4,000 buses get 620,000 passengers a day, or 155 passengers a day per bus, the Bangkok Mass Transit Authority will not suffer any loss. However, this doesn't mean the Newin group is home free.

Fact is, while each bus would cost around Bt4,600 per day, requiring a very realistic 155 passengers to cover the expense, half of that price is highly questionable. If we take away the leasing fee of Bt2,082 per day (which many still find too expensive), we are left with Bt2,250 maintenance spending. Now, someone has to educate me what the heck a brand-new bus needs Bt2,250 for, day in and day out.

This brings the maintenance cost of each bus to Bt821,250 a year or Bt8.21 million over 10 years. If we are talking about an army helicopter or sophisticated navy patrol boat, I may understand. For a simple bus running on gas, what spare parts need to be changed everyday, to begin with?

I agree with Tulsie. It comes out to about 4600 baht a day per bus.

I did some other research on companies that compare their maintenance costs with diesel buses. Most bus companies do maintenance fees per mile. The average cost is 7 cents per mile for NGV.

There are 1.6 kilometres in a mile.

Update my bad math:

4.375 cents per kilometre.

1.5 baht per kilometre

I think that is right. I used a currency converter for dollar to baht.

With my crap math, the maintenance fees that are being charged are still highway robbery.

I have no clue how many kilometres a bus travels a in a day. I can't imagine a city bus traveling over 200 k a day. I have no idea really, though.


Anonymous said...

Is there an algebra error?

A kilometer is less than a mile, so the cost per kilometer should be less than the cost per mile.

7 cents/mile times 1 mile/1.6km = 4.375 cents per km.

Fonzi said...

yeah, i am an idiot.

I multiplied instead of divided.

Anonymous said...

here is a good story on this matter, with a brief background history :

Bus-leasing scheme jams road of Abhisit gov't

"An independent study, quoted by senators opposed to the scheme, found that the total cost could be brought down by 40 percent. "